ACC football mailbag: Did Justin Fuente ruin Virginia Tech? Can anyone beat Clemson, FSU?

June 04, 2024

It’s time for part 2 of the ACC mailbag. Last week, the focus was more on off-the-field topics such as realignment, branding and TV deals. Now, it’s time to talk football.

However, before we get back to your questions, I wanted to clear something up from last week. Eric V. asked a question about The CW and if the announcement that the network had secured exclusive broadcast rights to 50 ACC football and basketball games per season through 2026-27 would increase revenues for ACC schools.

My original answer — that more eyes on the ACC would immediately equate to more revenue for schools — isn’t currently the case. The ACC’s contract is with ESPN, which then sub-licenses to Raycom, which will now be producing games for The CW. Raycom previously had a deal with Bally Sports, but Bally’s owner — Diamond Sports Group — filed for bankruptcy in March and got out of its contract with Raycom in June. That opened the door for Raycom to strike a deal with The CW. So it’s a revenue-neutral deal for the ACC in the sense that no school will take a hit, and the league will also not receive additional dollars because the ACC’s contract is with ESPN and not Raycom or The CW.

But it’s still positive for the ACC in the sense that The CW is much more accessible nationwide — it reaches 100 percent of U.S. television households — than Bally was. Maybe that will create more big-picture opportunities in the future, but at present, this news does not impact ACC schools from a revenue perspective. My apologies to Erik V. and all of you who read our mailbag for the mistake and for any ensuing confusion. Shout out to Todd K. in the comments for helping break this down, as well. This stuff is tricky! Now onto football. — Raynor

Will Virginia Tech ever be able to compete in the ACC at a high level? Did Justin Fuente ruin them? — Paul M.

There is hope for the Hokies, yes. Between the Washington, D.C. area and the Hampton Roads area, there is plenty of in-state talent for Brent Pry and his staff to pursue. The Hokies have picked it up on the recruiting front, which is the No. 1 factor in returning to prominence, and currently have commitments from three of the top 10 in-state prospects as ranked by 247Sports Composite. That’s a far cry from where they finished last year: signing zero top-10 Virginia prospects (while Penn State landed six). It’s not going to be an overnight makeover for Virginia Tech. The Hokies still have a ways to go, but Pry has shown he is a quality recruiter who seems to understand that keeping talent home is paramount. It wasn’t all that long ago — 2016 — when Virginia Tech competed for an ACC championship. And Frank Beamer already created the blueprint for Pry: clean up in the 757 area, then watch the on-field results follow. — Raynor

After Clemson and Florida State, is there another ACC team that’s legitimately close to joining them as a team for which there are consistent national expectations? — BD G.

The short answer is no, but that could change with the 12-team College Football Playoff. Pittsburgh, Wake Forest and NC State are probably the closest in terms of actually winning the conference, reaching the title game or generating some level of top-25 consistency. But none of the three recruit to the level SEC and Big Ten schools do, and they will probably always be viewed as an underdog trying to crash the big-boy party. I could see all three going 10-2 or 11-1 in a good season, losing to Clemson or Florida State in the ACC title game and getting left out of the Playoff because they aren’t respected enough. Louisville, North Carolina and Miami, meanwhile, do recruit better than those three in terms of rankings and hype, but they have been up and down far too often to deserve serious consideration right now. — Navarro

Cade Klubnik will be in his first full season as Clemson’s starting QB. (Brett Davis / USA Today)

Facing a more difficult schedule, can Mike Elko repeat (or improve on) last season’s success at Duke? — Chris V.

The way Elko took a struggling Duke program and led the Blue Devils to a 9-4 record in his debut season last year will never not be remarkable. Duke’s success a year ago is what college football is all about, and Elko deserved every bit of his ACC Coach of the Year award — and that contract extension he landed last week.

That said, I’m struggling to find nine wins on Duke’s schedule this year as the ACC drops divisions. The Blue Devils host Clemson in Week 1 and Notre Dame in Week 5 and travel to Florida State in October. If we assume losses in all three, Duke would have to either go undefeated in the other nine regular-season games or win eight of the nine plus a bowl game in order to match last year’s success. That’s assuming it doesn’t pull off an upset in any of the three aforementioned games.

Getting to 10 wins would require a combination of both. Duke is fortunate that it gets Clemson, Notre Dame, Wake Forest, NC State and Pittsburgh at home, but the Blue Devils travel to Louisville in October and have to go to UNC (and face Drake May) in November.

The nonconference lineup of Lafayette, Northwestern and UConn is forgiving, but any time a team draws Clemson, FSU and Notre Dame in the same season and still has the goal of reaching nine wins, it creates almost no room for error. That’s not to say Duke can’t have another excellent season with another bowl victory, though. Quarterback Riley Leonard should be one of the league’s best and Elko clearly knows what he’s doing. — Raynor

Who do you see as a potential dark horse in the race for the ACC title this season? Or, are Clemson and Florida State leaps and bounds above the rest of the conference? — Nick E.

My (proverbial) money is on Clemson and FSU meeting in the final with Clemson winning it. But my dark horse is Louisville.

Yes, the Cardinals are ushering in a new coaching staff with a new system that could come with growing pains, but quarterback Jack Plummer — entering his sixth year in college football — knows Jeff Brohm as well as anyone after the duo spent four years together at Purdue. Plummer then transferred to Cal, where he started all 12 games last season and threw for 3,095 yards to rank sixth on Cal’s all-time single-season list. In wide receiver Jamari Thrash, a Georgia State transfer, he’ll have a legitimate weapon in the passing game. Thrash averaged 93.5 receiving yards per game a season ago — tied for 11th nationally with former UNC star Josh Downs. And the Cardinals return several key contributors from a defense that ranked in the top half of the ACC in most key statistical categories. I like how well-rounded this team is entering preseason practice. — Raynor

What position groups are the best across the ACC? — Colin K.

Defensive line is the deepest position in the league, with Florida State’s Jared Verse and Clemson’s Xavier Thomas among the top edge rushers in the country. Tackle is even deeper, with Clemson’s Ruke Orhorhoro and Tyler Davis, Miami’s Leonard Taylor, and Florida State’s Fabien Lovett and Braden Fiske among the best nationally.

After that, I’d say receiver and tight end. Syracuse’s Oronde Gadsden and Clemson’s Jake Briningstool should be two of the best tight ends nationally. Florida State’s Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman are big, dangerous outside threats. Clemson’s Antonio Williams is one of the best sophomores in the country. There’s been some big-time transfers to come in, including Thrash at Louisville and Virginia Tech’s Ali Jennings.

I think the collection of offensive line talent has improved with the help of the transfer portal. Miami picked up two draftable interior linemen in center Matt Lee and guard Javion Cohen. Florida State has done a 180 under Norvell and Alex Atkins. Pittsburgh, Louisville and Clemson all have oodles of experience on their lines. — Navarro

In your estimation, how does Syracuse fare this season? — Ed H.

I cannot figure out Syracuse. The Orange seem to either be very high — winning six consecutive games to open the season last year — or very low, losing six of their final seven. In 2018, they won 10 games. In 2020, they won one. Garrett Shrader threw for 65 yards against Florida State coming off an injury, then 324 a week later at Wake Forest.

Ultimately, I’m of the belief that the Orange losing offensive coordinator Robert Anae to NC State will be a lot to overcome this season, but a path toward bowl eligibility seems possible. Colgate, Western Michigan, Purdue and Army are the Orange’s nonconference opponents. Georgia Tech and Boston College should be winnable games while the Virginia Tech matchup feels like a tossup. We’ll see if Dino Babers’ seat is hot as the season progresses, but if we’re being totally honest, Syracuse is sort of an enigma to me. — Raynor

What are the top 10 ACC games this season besides Clemson-FSU? — Grzegorz K.

First off, Grzegorz, I apologize for not following directions. Once I went down the rabbit hole of looking at every game on the schedule, I decided a couple of things: Any game involving CFP contenders Florida State and Clemson is important and worthy of making our list; coming up with an intriguing list of nonconference games also needed to be done. We’ll start there because a list of ACC head-to-head matchups isn’t as sexy. — Navarro

Top 12 nonconference games:

1. Florida State vs. LSU (Sept. 3): The Seminoles don’t need to beat the Tigers again to still have a shot at the Playoffs come November, but the league needs it after going 4-7 against the SEC in 2022.

2. Notre Dame at Clemson (Nov. 4): The Irish, who also this season play Duke, Louisville, Pittsburgh and Wake Forest, crushed the Tigers 35-14 last year in South Bend.

3. Clemson at South Carolina (Nov. 25): There’s some payback owed after the Gamecocks ended Clemson’s 40-game home winning streak.

4. Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (Sept. 9): The ACC went 3-2 against the Big 12 last season, and games like this one support or hurt the narrative in the race to be the third-best football conference behind the SEC and Big Ten.

5. Pittsburgh at West Virginia (Sept. 16): Last year’s Backyard Brawl was fun and it’ll be worth tuning in to see if Pat Narduzzi’s team wins again.

6. North Carolina vs. South Carolina (Sept. 2): New offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey and Heisman candidate Drake Maye would look pretty good with a season-opening win over a Top-25-worthy Shane Beamer squad in Charlotte.

7. Appalachian State at North Carolina (Sept. 9): You might remember last year’s game went to the Tar Heels, 63-61.

8. Texas A&M at Miami (Sept. 9): Mario Cristobal and Jimbo Fisher want to put the stench of last year’s 5-7 seasons in the rear-view mirror, and Miami would like to put an end to a five-game losing streak to the SEC dating back to 2013.

9. Old Dominion at Virginia Tech (Sept. 2): Nope, it wouldn’t be good if Brent Pry’s second season in Blacksburg began with a loss to the same Sun Belt program that beat them last year.

10. James Madison at Virginia (Sept. 9): Tony Elliott’s team opens with Tennessee and will then play its first home game since last year’s tragedy against an up-and-coming former FCS national champion. It’s a big game.

11. Syracuse at Purdue (Sept. 16): One of Dino Babers’ biggest wins during last year’s 7-6 campaign turned out to be a 32-29 classic against the eventual Big Ten West champions.

12. Georgia at Georgia Tech (Nov. 25): It’ll be important for Brent Key in his first season to play better against the two-time defending national champions.

Here’s my list of the top 12 ACC games (not including FSU at Clemson):

1. Florida State at Pittsburgh (Nov. 4): Outside of Clemson, this is probably the only road game the Seminoles could drop should Pat Narduzzi’s defense remain one of the toughest in the league.

2. Clemson at Duke (Sept. 4): Wallace Wade Stadium isn’t the loudest place, but Mike Elko’s Blue Devils are good enough to make things tough for Cade Klubnik in his second career start.

3. Wake Forest at Clemson (Oct. 7): Consider this another huge measuring stick game for Dave Clawson’s team, which could be 4-0 and will have two weeks to prepare for this trip to Clemson.

4. North Carolina at Pittsburgh (Sept. 23): The last two Coastal Division champions have played overtime classics won by the Panthers each of the last two times they hooked up in Pittsburgh.

5. Duke at Florida State (Oct. 21): The Seminoles are 21-0 all-time against the Blue Devils. But on paper, Duke could be FSU’s toughest home game of the season.

6. Miami at Florida State (Nov. 11): Mike Norvell’s team won by 42 points last year in Miami, and the Hurricanes can’t afford to get walloped again if they want to avoid some losses on the recruiting trail.

7. North Carolina at NC State (Nov. 25): They’ve met every year since 1953, and the last two games were decided by four points or less.

8. North Carolina at Clemson (Nov. 18): A rematch of last year’s ACC title game could be sexy if Maye’s Heisman push is still going strong.

9. Miami at NC State (Nov. 4): The last two meetings between these teams, in 2020 and 2021, were thrillers won by Miami.

10. Louisville at NC State (Sept. 29); The last six games in the series have been decided by two touchdowns or more between the former Atlantic Division rivals, but these are two bowl teams.

11. Miami at North Carolina (Oct. 14): The Tar Heels have won four in a row against Miami, and three were decided by a field goal. Maye versus Tyler Van Dyke should be entertaining again.

12. Pittsburgh vs. Syracuse (Nov. 11): This game is on the list because it is being played at Yankee Stadium in honor of the 100-year anniversary of the first college football game played there between these teams, won 3-0 by the Orange. — Navarro

(Top photo of Lane Stadium: Ryan Hunt / Getty Images)

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